Whatever the line is, Hillary will cover it.

Rick Klau wrote yesterday that he didn't think Hillary Clinton will win the democratic primary in 2008.  In fact, he used one of my favorite verbs - "wager" - while referring to Hillary's likelihood of winning the democratic nomination.

I would take that bet - and so should you.

Rick's main premise seems to be that the Dems will need a better, less polarizing, candidate in order to win.  In that limited respect, I think he is absolutely right.  But we aren't talking about winning the White House.  We are talking about winning the nomination.

I've got three words (actually two words and a number) - "2000 Republican Primary."

George Bush was not the best, brightest, most articulate candidate.  Hell, he wasn't even the most likely candidate to beat Al Gore.  But he had the most money.

Fast-forward to 2008.  Please review some facts & perceptions:

• Hillary is the single biggest money raiser in the democratic party. 
• Notice how quiet she has been lately regarding hot-button topics?
• Her senate voting record defines "moderate."
• John Kerry's campaign did not turn around when Dean flubbed.  It turned around when he loaned himself $100 56 million (Rick called me on this figure. And it pains me to say, I think he is right).
• George Bush won the 2000 Republican nomination because he had an overwhelming money advantage.
• Primaries are front-loaded. It is a sprint not a marathon.  If you don't have the money at the beginning, you don't even get out of the blocks.
• Hillary will take her checkbook and use its weight to bludgeon the other democratic-primary candidates.
• Plus, she has the best campaign team in all of politics waiting in the wings.  She also has the best politician in modern history advising her.

Barring some extraordinary development, Hillary will be the 2008 democratic nominee.  Bet on it.

Comments

[Rick Klau]

OK, Brad, you're on!

Dean had the most money too, and it didn't get him very far, did it? (BTW, Kerry's loan was for $6m, not $100m - an important distinction. Kerry was seriously lagging in the money wars, until Dean spent most of it in an ill-advised blitzkrieg in Iowa and NH; money started pouring in to JFK shortly after his Iowa win.)

As for the primary season being front-loaded, that's because McAuliffe made them that way; a new DNC chair could easily say we paid a huge price for that model in this past cycle and should change the format. I wouldn't bank on this being cast in stone for the '08 race.

And re: Hillary's voting record? No amount of moderate votes in the Senate can erase or overcome a public persona which is indelibly set in concrete for much of America (both good and bad). All the money in politics can't erase the negative image many have of her.

As for my really outlandish guess? As the polls start reinforcing this view, she won't even run and instead will campaign for VP or a cabinet post by helping get the eventual nominee elected (you're right to note her fundraising prowess, which can buy her just about any post other than pres she wants).

[Rick Klau]

I win. :)